Development and the Community: School Impact

By Brian DeLacey and Steven Keleti

What kind of impact will residential development have on Malden’s schools, roadways, public safety, city services and infrastructure? Malden instituted a residential building moratorium in 2016 to study and answer questions like this. The moratorium was extended into the middle of 2017 to complete that work. It remains unclear how this moratorium process will resolve itself or what kind of development activity we’ll see once the moratorium is lifted.

Schools and education. Important elements of our community.

These topics grabbed headlines in 2016 around mid-year with school budgets and again in the fall with ballot question 2. Oftentimes, it seems the discussion is reactive - it's upon us with a new budget and people react. However, by then, the options are few. With 1,110+ apartment units now in the works around Malden, and 314 residential units proposed for the old Malden Hospital site, it would be a good topic to get out in front of. Unfortunately, it is "sort of" a big topic and tends to be a little unwieldy and overwhelemening but it needn't be.

As of December 2016, there are 1,100+ apartment units around Malden for which permits were applied for or approved prior to the moratorium. The purpose of this document is to address what impact these kinds of developments might have on Malden's schools.

Additionally, a residential development has been proposed for the old Malden Hospital site. The Fellsmere Housing Group has introduced their proposal at community meetings. Their 22-page study, dated October 4, 2016, titled "Fiscal Impact Analysis Malden Hospital Site Fellsmere Housing Group Residential Redevelopment Malden, Massachusetts" is now available. You can now find a copy of that study at this link.

The Fellsmere Housing Group study, prepared by personnel with expertise in this work, divides impacts in two major categories - education (e.g. schools) and general service costs (e.g. police, traffic management, fire etc.)

Prior to release of the Fellsmere Housing Group study, citizens took a crack at their own “back of the envelope” estimate in order to project out what impact schools might see from incremental development. The analysis that follows was based on the best information available at the time - it will be reviewed further since the Fellsmere Housing Group study is publicly available.

Methodology and Assumptions

From the 2010 Malden Master Plan, there were 24,312 housing units 93% occupied (page 46) and 10,077 students (adding all school occupancies on page 105).  Based on those figures, historically across the city there were approximately 0.4144 students / housing unit (calculated as 10,077/24,312.)

We believe this estimate of 0.4144 is as likely to be too low as it might be too high. As a starting point, however, we believe it can be used to make rough estimates and engage in further thoughtful discussion.

A new-student Tsunami?

A first wave of a school-aged Tsunami could come from the 1,100+ apartment units already permitted, under construction, or almost ready for occupancy in Malden. (The actual number of units is likely higher and development projects in some corners of the city were excluded from restrictions of the moratorium.)

It seems the school budget process was especially difficult last year.. There was little public discussion in last year’s budget process concerning the changing numbers of students. There seems to be a baseline assumption of “students in seats” from which other budget numbers flow. How accurate have those numbers been in the past? In the future, it’s expected there will be a noticeable and significant surge in student headcount. Will this add a whole new degree of budgetary pressure?

How accurate are the estimates?

Reports suggest the Fellsmere Housing Group estimates 42 school-aged students would be added to the Malden Public School from their 314 unit proposed development. However, using the assumptions we’ve made above - which is based on historical Malden experience - suggests a more reasonable estimate is 130 school-aged students (314 * 0.4144 = 130.)  

As approved apartment units are occupied, there is little doubt Malden will see a flow of new school-aged students. The real question is how many students are expected. Malden should establish a process for documenting, estimating, and projecting enrollment of new students - tied directly to new dwelling units throughout the public school system. This is a dynamic and complex system that must be exceedingly difficult to estimate and monitor, but the effort needs to be made and the goal needs to be accuracy.

The first wave, and more to follow?

The first wave of Malden’s new-student Tsunami could add some 456 school-aged students (1,100 * 0.4144). Given the state of apartment buildings, this student influx could hit schools in September 2017. This by itself could require dozens of new classrooms, and possibly new school buildings.

A second wave of a school-aged student Tsunami will come from any additional dwelling units permitted. One such development that could provide a future wave of the new-student Tsunami is from the Fellsmere Housing Group. They have proposed a 314-unit development at the old Malden Hospital site. Their development proposal is at http://courbanize.com/projects/fellsmere-housing/information

Various reports suggest the Fellsmere Housing Group estimates 42 school-aged students would be added to the Malden Public School from their 314 unit proposed development. Our calculations suggest 130 new school-aged students is a reasonable estimate. We feel it is equally likely that number might be higher or lower.  

Fellsmere Housing Group completed their own analysis of the economic benefits to Malden for their proposed hospital site project. They sent that analysis to members of Malden’s City Council a couple of months ago. That document should be shared with the public.

The Fellsmere Housing Group analysis was reportedly very thorough in reviewing the project's impact with all of the departments in Malden. Their analysis was based on the 2016 fiscal year and prepared by an individual with knowledge of Malden.

Any new-student influx can be projected in advance at the time building approval is granted Just like a water-driven Tsunami, people need to make, common-sense decisions in advance. The city, and departments throughout the city, need to take preliminary action based on the evidence on the horizon. Right now, it looks like “a lot” of new students could arrive on the school sure beginning in the fall 2017.

Will the situation turn out better or worse than these back-of-the-envelope estimates?

The trend has been for Malden to have more students per household than the state average, because Malden has relatively large dwellings which have historically been relatively affordable.  

While the number of students-per-household might be less in a new development, because of physical size limits on each individual dwelling, the overall impact on the entire community could still be large.

As the number of dwelling units increase, it’s possible the average students-per-household in the area will shift as well, either increasing or decreasing. It doesn’t seem there is much data to support arguments in either direction. Our estimates are based on data that is at least 6 years old. Much has changed since 2010. We have seen a significant escalation in local housing prices, and this seems to correlate closely with a trend towards more people living in each dwelling. As a result, dwelling population density may well be increasing  and the corresponding ratio of students to units would likely be increasing as well.

People with an may filter their views through their own economic lens. When someone suggests the cost impact to our school system will be outweighed incremental tax revenues from new development, what evidence supports this?  Similarly, people with other goals may exaggerate the impact and suggest the incremental tax will never cover all the increased costs. Our goal is to make some fact-based estimates and engage in a thoughtful, informed discussion on this.

The neighborhood school closest to the downtown apartment developments and any future Malden hospital site development is the Beebe School. It’s generally believed that Beebe is already over-enrolled by 50 students. Problems with large class-sizes and tight budgets seen in 2015 and 2016 will grow..

Some Afterthoughts

Some might argue that the ratio of 0.4144 students to each unit is high. For instance, our computation does not adjust the figures to account for how many students will attend Charter or Catholic schools.

It’s also possible the ratio is too low - for instance, if there was a significant - if even local - increase in dwelling density or an unexpected rental market.

Also, the percentage mix of students from those schools who live outside of Malden are not represented in these calculations. However, it is probably fair to estimate that as many students living in Malden go to schools outside Malden as students living outside Malden come to Malden schools.

One argument we’ve heard says apartments attract people looking to downsize - and thus draw people without (or with fewer) school-aged children. However, as families downsize, the residence they moved out of (if it were in Malden) may very well be occupied by families who bring more children into the schools.

Moving Forward

Our goal with this article is to share newly available information and take a closer look at development impact on schools:

http://www.publicactionnetwork.com/hospital/schools.html.

For more on development prospects at the old hospital site visit: http://www.publicactionnetwork.com/hospitalupdate.html

We invite your comments to PublicActionNetwork@gmail.com

Initial Draft December 22, 2016; updated December 28, 2016